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I quattro giganti ciechi the challenge of the near future

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appeal to the people-the original article Megachip

Risorgimentale E-zine - Body Party still there '

drafting on December 13, 2010 - 11 Comments di

Giulietto Chiesa

megachip Dopo un quarantennio imperiale, unipolare, stiamo vivendo una

parentesi multipolare

. Quanto durerà nessuno può saperlo e non abbiamo una sfera di cristallo in cui guardare. L'unica cosa che sappiamo, con certezza, da molti segnali, è che siamo nella vicinanza relativa di un punto di rottura della continuità storica: quello che si può definire come un “cambiamento di fase”, qualcosa di analogo a quello che in fisica, per esempio, è il passaggio dallo stato liquido a quello gassoso. È per questa ragione che parlo di parentesi multipolare: perché non sarà lunga come la fase storica unipolare che l'ha preceduta, e perché la sua durata equivale alla nostra distanza dal punto di rottura, o cambiamento di fase. Questa distanza si misura in anni, non in decenni e quello che avverrà in questi anni deciderà le modalità del cambiamento di fase e, in misura decisiva, deciderà anche come l'umanità uscirà dalla transizione. Dunque è molto importante capire come arriveremo al “punto di ebollizione”. Per questo occorre identificare, con la maggior precisione possibile, chi sono gli “attori” in grado, almeno in via teorica, di influire su questo temporal path.

Four and these will remain in the duration of

parentheses.

Other actors are about to enter arena pre-kettle, but there is no time for them to get into the whole and thus participate as supporting cast and, as such, can at most serve as catalysts of processes that go beyond them.

Who are these four? They are the United States

the

China, the ' Europe and Russia . Four patients with the "forces" are not homogeneous in the highest degree: for territorial extension to the situation population, for the financial dimension, composition, technological and industrial structure of trade, military, historical experience and culture. So it is very difficult to place them into a unified scale of forces to extract a list.

However the result that emerges from each of them is a "quality" or less intuitively measurable global arena in which only compete, sometimes cooperate, collide and collide. In other words: we know what each can "claim", that is to count, that affect the global situation and the behavior of the other three.

We already know che la globalizzazione ha assunto un livello tale che, per la prima volta nella storia umana, l'Uomo è in grado – per usare un'espressione di

Freeman Dyson – di “turbare l'universo”, non c'è più decisione di uno di questi giganti che possa essere assunta senza influire sull'insieme globale. È l'insieme globale, e non i suoi singoli componenti, che è oggi sottoposto alle smisurate tensioni che lo stanno conducendo a un cambiamento di fase. Se ne deduce che, per evitare che questo avvenga in forme totalmente incontrollate, catastrofiche, devastanti, occorre un consenso internazionale su tutte le prossime moves on the critical points that approximate strength (climate, money, energy, food, water, population, etc.)..

The question is this: can such a consensus? According to the current course, it is highly unlikely for several reasons, three of which determine all the others:

a) the current international architecture has no tools to change the route to the four main characters.

b) the historical legacy of the four giants is so heavy that not only prevents a joint action, but the vast majority of cases, and problems, preventing even a common thinking.

c) within the time horizon of multi parentheses

their immediate interests collide. And the intellectual level of the ruling class is quite below the requirements.

Raising the probability of an outcome "Faust" would imply a radical intervention on the three issues set out here soon.

is likely that we will succeed, given the limited time available, and given the cultural and intellectual level of political and economic elites who wield real power in the four dominant centers?

The answer can be obtained from the current state of the art: we can not lull in the illusion and cultivate hopes unfounded. We need a realistic, dramatic decisions to understand that, consistent with the immensity of the problems must be taken and that, if they are not taken, we should expect disruptions unpredictable in size, scope, impact.

Let us now fast-synthesis where are the four protagonists.

The

United States are in a decline

evident and unstoppable. They have already lost their imperial position, though not yet seem to have noticed. The elite that drives them seem incapable of acknowledging the situation and to reorganize accordingly. On the contrary appears prone, though confusedly, to impose its supremacy even in spite of its decline and the unsustainability of such a claim. Until the American elite will not put into question the axiom that Reagan "the standard of living of the American people is not negotiable", that country will remain a prisoner of the illusion of being able to continue to grow as it did in the last hundred years. When you see evidence that this is not feasible, the most likely outcome - in the absence of a more reasonable guide of the "tea party" and bipartisan elite in whose hands lies - will be tempted to use the 'immense military force at its disposal to crush opponents and competitors. Because his opponents and competitors are the size that we know, you can try to imagine the horrific scenarios that we outlined before.

The

China is the new world power

in training, also unstoppable (by peaceful means). And China, only China, the pneumatic hammer that is crushing the American Empire, it is clear that Europe is not involved in this enterprise for its total subordination to the imperial model of growth, and it is also clear that Russia can not and does not want the American decline and the fear of not less politico-economic growth China. This already works globally in all directions and rhythms that, in the next five years - in the presence of Chinese GDP growth rates of 10% per annum - we will have in front of 'one China and a half, instead of the. These growth rates, it is presumed, will pose many problems to China itself, present and future, whose positive outcome we can only hope, because, in the event of failure of his program, that we should deal with the effects would probably an order of magnitude higher than those of its success. At the same time the growth in China is and will still immense problems to the planet as a whole, affecting all points of the crisis already underway in the rest of the world (climate, energy, natural resources, finance, trade).

But with some special features essential to China's energy resources (coal) for free through the entire multi

parentheses, China is a huge market for itself, and in that bracket will proceed regardless largely from external disturbances that occur in parallel, China has a political system that allows centralized decisions and quick. Internal control is ensured by both an authoritarian political system, either by consent produced by the growth of a widespread and well-being previously unknown to large sections of society.

You can add, indeed should do, that China has a horizon and a breath historical and temporal larger than in the West as a whole, which allows a more long. I believe that these are the reasons why the current China appears better prepared to deal with the phase change I mentioned at the beginning. However, China, as at least two of the other giant planets (Europe and U.S.) does not have to undo the brake, or even stop their own, monstrous growth inertia. Today it is a moderate and prudent player, even in modest form, smiling and friendly (although very firm in defending its national interests). But when that China will become "two Cine ", that in ten years, no one can predict what will or her weight, and how they unfold the effects of its supremacy in a world already devastated in its essential balance.

The

Russia is - economically, demographically - the smallest of the four protagonists. But it is the largest geographically and is especially in terms of natural resources

. It is a boundless territory within which are the largest reserves of energy, raw materials, that the planet has. It is theoretically able to address the multi parentheses better of each other just in terms of resources. It has a wide spread technological intelligentsia, but has a very old industrial background, a network of inadequate infrastructure, a commercial aspect is very weak. Above is a country that is still folded in on itself twenty years after the Soviet collapse, with a ruling class mentally "comprador", largely subordinate to the United States, but with contemporary nationalist instincts and great-power ambitions frustrated. Everything under high blackmail, since the last twenty years have been for Russia frenzied imitation of American capitalist model, which has seriously affected the historical roots of Russian culture itself.

At the same time this class of oligarchs robbery did emigrate to the Western banks enormous riches that have become part and parcel of the gigantic machine of financial speculation, led by Wall Street. Russia, no investment modernizers, has remained essentially an exporter of raw materials. Under these conditions it is unlikely that Russia could look up on the horizon to take the world organization of consensus around a vision of autonomous, non-confrontational, the phase transition.

let alone this present-day Russia can aspire to become a driving force of a vision human development that speaks to the planet, a new narrative of the world up to the never slumbering ambitions of some minority to become the "Third Rome."

seems much more likely that Russia will deploy with the West against China rather than the atavistic fear of the nearby Russian giant, for the tangle of interests linking Russia to the capitalist development of consumerism that is going in ruins. Of the four giants, therefore, Russia appears less relevant in the sense of least able to influence the behavior of others, and rather inclined to be led by their actions. The Russian ace up its sleeve that will allow you to have a say, is the its nuclear power. After having lost control in the era Yeltsin - who had returned for fear of a return of communism in American hands - today it has repurchased and keep it jealously throughout the bipolar

parentheses.

But this card will not be playable, or will be too late, when the phase change will become turbulent and uncontrollable. And at that stage, many advanced technologies likely to become more vulnerable than ever before. Sources of danger rather than security.

L 'Europe

, eventually. It is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis, which is directed consequence of the "contagion" of Wall Street. In the sense that, having chosen Europe unequivocally the ultra-liberal U.S. financial model, appended to the British car of the train in Washington, is now forced not only to support all rescue operations of the imperial machine, but to suffer the greatest consequences .

series of speculative attacks organized by the "Washington-consensus" is threatening, in rapid succession, after Greece, a number of countries that are losing sovereignty to the benefit of the Western world's centers of finance, all centered on the dollar. The sovereignty of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy and then gradually all others, it means additional loss of the same European sovereignty.

The American model, moreover, shows cracks so clear that even the mainstream

, fully committed, with its huge army of propagandists, to hide the evidence, unable to conceal from the European public opinion the impending disaster. The European Central Bank, instead of addressing head-on the crisis of global finance, a strategy assuming independent and different from that of Wall Street have established new rules that would force Washington to come to terms not only with Europe but with China, Japan, Brazil, India, was placed in the soil of service strategy time to save the dollar from collapsing, and America (along with Great Britain) from bankruptcy.

probably with the European elites who finds herself, Europe could not do otherwise. But the fact is now that the crisis America has become the crisis of the entire West.

And while in America, ages and s'incattiviscono the spirits of a savage capitalism at the same time of greed and self-sufficiency (both now impossible to achieve), producing a shift to the right of internal policies, Europe is witnessing the first signs of a rupture of the social pact that had held together the European societies.

A social contract with the European welfare state, spread over the period of fat cows on large sections of intermediate groups had ensured Europe with stable and surrounded by a relative consensus. Now the public, accustomed to the model of welfare, far from the American one, you see fallen back in its standard of living, while the intermediate layers increasingly large run down the social scale losing income, benefits and wellness. This Europe has been weakened economically and politically in ways that may prove irreparable. Would be the size of scale to exert a positive influence on pending lawsuits. It has the advantage of being armed strategically and, therefore, not be threatened. Could play a full mediating role before the phase change takes sweeping rhythms. But all this presupposes and implies a European sovereignty that reverses the relationship of allegiance to the United States.

of such sovereignty are untraceable. And this is one of the reasons why more than half of Europeans do not go to vote for the European institutions: a worrying sign of loosening deep democratic and a growing public distrust of a state in formation towards the ruling classes who can not drive it .

In short, the four main oarsmen, at present, only one row, while the other three are limited to fumble. That la barca, rappresentata dal nostro pianeta, possa rifugiarsi in un porto sicuro, sono davvero in pochi a credere. Per lo meno tra coloro che hanno il quadro reale della situazione davanti agli occhi.

La grande massa dei popoli non sa quasi nulla di ciò che accade. Non lo sa perché il mainstream

è stato costruito proprio per nascondere i tratti cruciali del disastro. E questo impedisce una difesa dal basso di coloro che hanno tutto da perdere, essendo in catene.

Resta, ormai visibile, una grande inquietudine. È su questa, e su una battaglia nuova, inedita, per far giungere la descrizione vera di ciò che è accaduto e accade, agli occhi (letteralmente, proprio agli occhi) delle grandi masse, che si deve fare leva. Sapendo che tutto ciò che di positivo potremo fare, dovunque ci troviamo, sotto ogni latitudine e longitudine, dovrà accadere durante la parentesi bipolare.

Un nuovo impero, se ve ne sarà uno, avrà un volto che sarà difficile guardare.

Questo articolo fa parte del numero di «AntimafiaDuemila» disponibile nelle edicole della Sicilia e nelle librerie a partire dal 20 dicembre e nelle settimane succesive