From: Like Don Quixote
OF JULES DUFOUR mondialisation.ca
2010. A year in which the real world economy has been severely affected by the financial crisis. The economies of rich countries have been deeply undermined by high budget deficits and heavy national debts. Many of them have then been in a situation that forced them to cut public spending, endangering social programs. In February 2010, a year after the prospective analysis of the European Laboratory for anticipating policy (LEAP) on the future of the world economy, we have noted that "such a process is underway: the states on the edge of bankruptcy, increased inexorable unemployment, millions of people excluded from social protection network, reduction of wages, elimination of public services, weakening of the global governance system (bankruptcy the Copenhagen Summit, the growing contrasts China / USA, the return of the risk of the Iran / Israel / USA, War global monetary, etc.). "(LEAP, 2010). According to the same report, however, we are only at the beginning of this phase . The escalation of the global systemic crisis is characterized by an acceleration and / or a tightening of the five key trends following negative:
"- The explosion of deficits and the subsequent insolvency of the debt of the States;
- The fatal collision of the Western banking system with the increase in defaults and the wall of the debt came to an end;
- The inevitable rise in interest rates;
- The increased number of situations of international tension;
- The growing social insecurity. "
The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin N ° 42, the LEAP has chosen to analyze the" greek case "because it is emblematic of what brought us 2010 and because it illustrates perfectly the evolution of information on the global crisis, namely a "communication war" between blocks of increasing interest in conflict. It is, in fact, a "must" to decipher the information world of the months and years to come, which will be an increasing vector of manipulative operations. (LEAP, 2010)
I. General impoverishment and increased hunger
This exerts and will have a major impact on the economies of poor countries by making them more vulnerable to flows of commodity prices and speculation the world market. According to United Nations entities will increase the impoverishment of millions of people and therefore the number of hungry and homeless. According to FAO, in 2010 925 million people suffer from chronic hunger, of which 15 million in rich countries. According to the Red Cross, more than 827.6 million are forced to live in slums without even the minimum sanitary conditions. (AFP-Geneva, 2010) According the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) "in the last forty years the number of very poor countries doubled from 25 in 1971 to 49 in 2010, and the same thing happened to the number of people below the poverty line since the early 80 '. " (AFP-Geneva, 2010) In the 2010 report of the 49 least developed countries (LDCs), UNCTAD said that "the prevailing model of development for these countries to date has failed and must be revised." (AFP-Geneva, 2010)
II. Disasters of natural and man-width
to this alarming situation, both North and South, have added a series of disasters of natural and man of great breadth. According to the insurance group Swiss Re, catastrophes have taken a heavy toll on the world economy in 2010, for a total of 222 billion dollars, or three times compared to 2009. (AFP-Geneva, 2010) These disasters were devastating for the environment and human settlements: the earthquake in Haiti in January claimed the lives of 225,000 people and damaged a large area of \u200b\u200bthe country, the storm in Cinzia February devastated Eastern Europe in the same period a violent earthquake of magnitude 8.8 struck Chile, the explosion of the platform in the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon in April caused the largest oil spill in U.S. history, in July of unprecedented floods have submerged huge areas in Pakistan and China. (AFP-Geneva, 2010).
III. Military spending continues to increase
While the alarm call of the international organizations complaint unabated poverty, hunger and poverty, rich countries devote enormous sums for the purchase of armaments and preparations for war . E 'possible to say that the economic crisis has not touched the field of defense. Military spending, in fact, have not ceased to increase and the figures show that the defense and security items are provided for additional amounts for 2011 rispetto al 2010. Nel bilancio americano la voce difesa mostra degli aumenti sostanziali. Nel bilancio nazionale americano la somma stanziata per la difesa era di 661 miliardi di dollari nel 2009 e quella prevista per il 2011 dovrebbe raggiungere i 749, 5 miliardi. Nel 2010, le spese americane per le operazioni militari sono state di 719,2 miliardi di dollari, di 125,9 miliardi per l'assistenza ai Veterani, di 9,9 miliardi per l'aiuto militare all'estero e di 41,2 miliardi per l'aiuto economico.
( http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_budget_2010_3.html )
Contracts for the purchase of new combat equipment have skyrocketed. Agreements of purchase of fighter planes have been signed with key military industries and, in particular, Company Lockheed Martin to build F-35 fighter aircraft. According to the SIPRI database, world military expenditure in 2009 reached 1.531 trillion dollars , of \u200b\u200bwhich more than half made by the United States (Figures 1, 2 and 3). According to the SIPRI report data, taken from I. Gedilaghine , In 2009, world military spending reached new records without suffering the effect of the crisis, thanks mainly to the United States, whose change of administration has also not changed the trend. Last year, the world has allocated U.S. $ 1.531 trillion (1244 billion euro) for the military sector, a rise of 5.9% over 2008 and 49% compared to 2000, writes the International Institute of Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). E 'can see that nothing is overlooked for the organization of the war, security and surveillance of the reserves of strategic resources and manufacturing infrastructure: it underpins the prosperity of the powerful on the planet.
I V. The vision of the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation. Europe 2020 LEAP 2011
According to the LEAP you are going to a breakdown in the global economy and financial system.
Below we reproduce the entire analysis of the LEAP in 2011. The analysis reveals that over the coming months will see a gradual deterioration of the U.S. economy with devastating effect initially for more than 60 million Americans and then to all strata of Western society.
"As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 in February GEAB No. 42 in the second half of 2010 is characterized by deterioration brutal crisis, accompanied by the end of the illusion of a recovery in which the Western leaders believe, who have now ascertained the trillions swallowed up by banks and plans to "stimulate" economic ineffective.
The coming months will reveal a simple reality, but particularly painful: the Western economy, and America in particular, is never really out of recession. The statistical bounce since the summer of 2009 were recorded only a temporary consequence of the massive injection of liquidity into a system that has become fundamentally insolvent in the eyes of the American consumer.
the middle of the systemic crisis global from the outset, the United States in the coming months will prove once again to drag the economy and global finance in the "heart of darkness", because they can not get out of this "great depression U.S.."
Considering the negative growth rates back down and in anticipation of political jolts of the American elections in November next, the world will face "the big break" in the global economy and financial system, which the 60 'is based on the need that the U.S. economy is never in a prolonged recession.
Well, the first half of 2011 will force the U.S. economy to a cure of austerity will lead to unprecedented chaos in a new world financial, monetary, economic and social development.
The coming quarters will be particularly dangerous for the world economy and financial system.
In the recent meeting of the world's central banks to Jackson Hole in Wyoming, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, in a very diplomatic, he did however pass a clear message: despite a policy to revitalize the U.S. economy is bankrupt, the rest of the world must continue to finance its deficit, hoping that this will serve to prevent the collapse of the global system, or the United States to monetize their debt in transforming the waste paper collection of dollars and U.S. treasury bonds in banks around the world.
Like any power crisis, the United States are now forced to use threats, as well as the pressure to get what they want. Until last year, executive officers and financial managers in the world were willing to support the U.S. economy. Today things have changed since the reassurance of Washington has shown an arrogance, based on the pretense of having understood the nature of the crisis and have the tools to dominate. In contrast, U.S. growth quarter after quarter and evaporates negative return since the end of 2010, the increase of unemployment will not stop: Although the stability the official figures, in six months more than two million Americans have left the labor market, the housing market continues to be maintained at a very low level and begin again to fall in the fourth quarter of 2010, starting with these conditions, com ' you can imagine, the U.S. consumer remains and will remain a debtor in default because its insolvency is aggravated by every five Americans who are without work.
statistical considerations lie behind these two realities that will radically transform the political landscape, economic and social world and U.S. in the coming months, as will emerge in the collective consciousness. The
collera popolare paralizzerà Washington da novembre 2010.
C'è un disagio popolare molto grave, quello di decine di milioni d'americani (più di sessanta milioni dipendono ormai da buoni alimentari) che non hanno più lavoro, più casa, più risparmi e che si chiedono come potranno sopravvivere negli anni a venire." ( Crise systémique globale )
Conclusioni
La popolazione mondiale raggiungerà, nel 2011, i sette miliardi d'abitanti. Poiché l'essenziale degli effettivi (più d'ottanta milioni di persone) si aggiunge each year in developing countries, it is reasonable to think that the level of vulnerability of those regions continue to grow causing more casualties and major damage to human settlements. According to Hervé Domenach, demographers, Director of Research at the Institute of Development Research, "about 95% of the increased population of the world today concerns the non-Western countries, and the proportion of their effects in world population, which was 68 % in 1950, would reach 87% in 2050. If these predictions were fulfilled, we will see a tremendous redistribution of the world population "( http://www.x-environnement.org/index.php?option = com_content & view = article & id = 51% 3Asept-2007 & catid = 36% 3Ajaune-rouge = 41 & Itemid = 3 & limitstart )
This will attract more and more the forces of global government to emerging countries and countries with important strategic resources. The global geopolitical landscape will change and the scenario that seems likely for 2011, is marked by an increase in tensions between states, because most Western economies will slip into the abyss of budget deficits, the more other factors act to destabilize world on governance. The doctrine of military intervention budget, sponsored by the U.S. with the global war on terror, could be developed by regional powers, but the rights of the grandi potenze trionferanno ancora a lungo, attizzando i luoghi caldi come la Corea del Nord, il Medio Oriente o il consenso creato dalla resistenza dei membri dell'ALBA.
Tra i fattori decisivi ci saranno la volontà di potenza della Russia e le strategie di conquista della Cina per le nuove fonti di materie prime e per i mercati finanziari ed economici emergenti.
E' innegabile che le guerre d'invasione dell'Iraq e dell'Afghanistan siano giunte alla fine, essendo divenute ormai sempre più ingiustificabili dall'imperialismo. In Afghanistan, l'esercito nazionale rifondato e meglio equipaggiato per i combattimenti sostituirà le forze della coalizione. Si costituirà quindi un modus operandi "normal" with economic and military support of Western powers. The Afghanistan will become a great ally for the continental United States and NATO, taking on a role similar to that played by Israel in the Middle East and Colombia in Latin America.
horizon, you can still see a slow but inexorable decline of the West, which will be logically determined by the progressive weakening of its population worldwide. To be able to mobilize the global economy behind their hegemonic interests, the great powers will have to create situations in the stakes are high. The explosion of a nuclear war against? Iran and Korea North? Another 11? An armed invasion of Venezuela? The strategists at the Pentagon and the White House will not exclude any option in order to safeguard the interests of the world's leading power.
Jules Dufour, Ph.D., is president de l'Association canadienne pour les Nations Unies (ACNU) / Section Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, a professor emeritus at the University of Quebec at Chicoutimi, a member of the universal circle of Ambassadors of Peace, a member of the Chevalier de Ordre National du Québec . E 'research associate at the CRM (Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation).
Original title: "2011. Crise du capitalisme hégémonique. Appauvrissement, plus great vulnerability faim et des zones de vie"
Source: http://www.mondialisation.ca/
Link
28.12.2010
Translation for www.comedonchisciotte.org by MARIO SEI
Bibliography
AFP. 2010. In short. The cost of hunger. ActionAid. The Devoir.com, the 14 septembre 2010, p. B5. En ligne: http://www.ledevoir.com/international/actualites-internationales/296116/en-bref-le-cout-de-la-faim
AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Un rapporto della Croce-Rossa Internazionale. Un miliardo di persone vivono in bidonvilles. Queste popolazioni sono le più vulnerabili alle catastrofi. Journal Le Devoir, le 22 septembre 2010, p. B7.
AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Grido d'allarme della CNUCED. Il numero dei paesi molto poveri è raddoppiato in quarant'anni. Journal le Devoir, le 26 septembre 2010, p. A7.
AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Le catastrofi sono costate 222 miliardi all'economia mondiale. Journal Le Devoir, le 1er décembre 2010, p. B5.
ARTHUS-BERTRAND, Yann. 2009. HOME. Déchiffrer. S’informer. Discuss. Understand. Act. Paris, Mame. 2009. 190 pages.
Dufour, Jules. 2009. Una guerra global in aiuto all'Impero americano. Montreal, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). On March 3, 2009. Online: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12533 \u200b\u200b
Dufour, Jules. 2009. Il grande riarmo planetario. Montreal, Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). On May 5, 2009. Online: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13162
Engdahl, JF, 2010. The geopolitics behind the war drum of the United States in Afghanistan. Montréal, Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation (CRM). The November 2, 2009. En ligne: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15909
FAO. 2010. 925 million chronically hungry people in the world. Despite an improvement, this level is "unacceptable." Espace Presse. Le 14 octobre 2010. En ligne: http://www.fao.org/news/story/fr/item/45232/icode/
GEDILAGHINE, Igor. 2010. The SPES global militarism crisis does not conoscono born effetto Obama. AFP. France-Amerique. French newspaper of the Americas. June 1, 2010. Online: http://www.france-amerique.com/articles/2010/06/01/les_depenses_militaires_mondiales_ne_connaissent_ni_crise_ni_effet_obama.html
INTERNATIONAL LABOR OFFICE
. 2010. Global Environmental Trends.January 2010. 82 pages.
Online: http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_elm/---trends/documents/publication/wcms_120471.pdf
Shah, Anup. 2010. World Military Spending. Global Issues.org. Social, Political, Economic and Environmental Issues That Affect Us All. On July 7, 2010. Online: http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world-military-spending # WorldMilitarySpending
Wikepedia. 2010. Deepwater Horizon. Online: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon
Siti Internet
Global systemic crisis-Spring 2011. May 5, 2010: http://www.i-services.net/newsbox/151229-97380-1643-47311/crise-systemique-globale-printemps-2011.php
Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique/Europe2020 (Leap/E2020): http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap/Europe2020
Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II
List of countries by military Expenditures. En ligne: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
US Defense Budget: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_budget_2010_3.html
Worldometers - Mondiales statistiques en temps réel: http://www.worldometers.info/fr /
0 comments:
Post a Comment