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Questo numero 51 del GEAB celebra il quinto anniversario della pubblicazione del Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. Nel gennaio 2006, in occasione del GEAB N°1, il gruppo di LEAP/E2020 indicava che la fase da quattro a sette anni che si approssimava sarebbe stata caratterizzata “dalla caduta del muro del dollaro„, fenomeno simile a quello della caduta del muro di Berlino che negli anni successivi aveva trascinato al crollo il blocco comunista, quindi alla fine dell'URSS. Oggi, in questo GEAB N°51 che presenta trentadue previsioni per il 2011, riteniamo che l'anno a venire sarà un anno cerniera in questo processo, dispiegandosi dunque tra il 2010 ed il 2013. Sarà in ogni caso un anno impietoso poiché, infatti, segnerà l'entrata del mondo pre-crisi nella fase terminale(1).
Dal settembre 2008, momento in cui l'evidenza della natura globale e sistemica della crisi si is imposed on all, the United States, and behind them the Western countries, have been content to palliative measures that do not merely mask the erosive effects of the crisis on the basis of the contemporary international system. 2011, according to our team, will mark the defining moment when one side sees these palliative measures dissolve their anesthetizing effect and, conversely, there will be brutal in the forefront of systemic consequences of the dismemberment of recent years (2). In summary, 2011 will be marked by a series of violent shocks that will explode the false protections implemented by 2008 (3) and that they will carry the "pillars" on which rests for decades as "the muro dollaro„. Solo i paesi, Comunità, organizzazioni ed individui che da tre anni hanno realmente tratto una lezione dalla crisi in corso, al fine di allontanarsi il più rapidamente possibile dai modelli, valori e comportamenti pre-crisi, attraverseranno indenni quest'anno; gli altri saranno trascinati nella processione di difficoltà monetarie, finanziarie, economiche, sociali e politiche che il 2011 riserverà. Così, poiché pensiamo che il 2011 sarà globalmente l'anno più caotico dal 2006, data dell'inizio dei nostri lavori sulla crisi, il nostro gruppo si è concentrato nella GEAB N°51 su 32 previsioni, che comportano anche numerose raccomandazioni per fare fronte agli chocs a venire. Si tratta di una kind of map estimates of financial shocks, monetary, political, economic and social implications for the next twelve months that offer this number of GEAB. If our group believes that 2011 will be the most terrible year of 2006, the date of the beginning of our work for the prediction of systemic crisis, it is because we are at the intersection of three roads of the world chaos. Failed treatment of the underlying causes of the crisis, by 2008 the world has only to jump back out better.
An international system bloodless
The first way that the crisis can take to generate a chaotic world, it is simply a violent and unpredictable shocks. The downfall of the system international status is now so advanced that its cohesion is at the mercy of a disaster of any size (4). Just look at the inability of the international community to help effectively from one year to Haiti (5), the United States to rebuild New Orleans for six years, the 'UN to regulate the problems of Darfur and Cote d' Ivoire for a decade, the United States to advance peace in the Middle East, NATO to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Security Council to monitor the Korean and Iranian issues, the 'West to stabilize Lebanon, the G20 to end the global financial crisis , food, economic, social, monetary, ... to see that on the whole range delle catastrofi climatiche ed umanitarie, come crisi economiche e sociali, il sistema internazionale è ormai impotente. In realtà, almeno dalla metà degli anni 2000, l'insieme dei grandi attori mondiali, ai primi posti dei quali si trovano naturalmente gli Stati Uniti e il suo corteggio di paesi occidentali, fa soltanto propaganda, gesticolazione. Nella realtà, non va più nulla: la pallina delle crisi gira e ciascuno trattiene il respiro affinché essa non cada nella sua casella. Ma gradualmente la moltiplicazione dei rischi e dei temi di crisi ha trasformato la roulette da casinò in roulette russa. Per LEAP/E2020, il mondo intero inizia a giocare alla roulette russa (6), o piuttosto alla sua versione 2011 “la roulette American ", with five bullets in the drum.
's rise in prices of raw materials (food, energy (7), ...) reminds us of the 2008 (8). And 'in fact half that preceded the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Wall Street, which is located on the last episode of sharp increases in commodity prices. And the current causes are of the same nature as those of yesterday: an escape from the active financial and monetary accommodation in favor of "concrete". Yesterday, the big players fled the mortgage and all that depended on how the U.S. dollar, but now they flee the set of financial and treasury bills (C) and other public debts. Should therefore expect, between spring and autumn 2011 the bubble burst quadruple 201.1 Treasury bills, the public debt (10), bank balance sheets (11) and housing (American, Chinese, British, English, and ... Commercial (12)), all of which takes place on the monetary fund war exacerbated (13). The 'quantitative easing inflation induced by American, British and Japanese, and incentive measures of the same, the Europeans and Chinese will be a destabilizing factor of 2011 (14). We will return in detail in this issue N ° 51. But what is clear by observing what happens in Tunisia (15), the global context, in particular the increase in food prices and energy from now on will result in radical social and political shocks (16). The 'other reality shows that the Tunisian case, is the powerlessness of the godfathers "of French, Italian or American to prevent the collapse of a" scheme-friend "(17).
Impotence major geopolitical players worldwide
quest'impotenza And the world is the main geopolitical actors' other way that the crisis could be used to generate a chaotic world in 2011. In fact, the major powers can be classified into two groups of G20, including the only point in common is that they can not influence events in a decisive way. On the one hand there is the 'dying with the West, on the one hand, the United States, of which 2011 will show that his leadership is just a novel (see in this issue N ° 51) and they are trying to solidify the international system in its configuration in the early 2000 ( 18), and then there's the 'Euroland, "sovereign" in gestation, mainly focused on its adaptation to its new environment (19) and its new status of the emerging geopolitical entity (20), and therefore did not neither the strength nor the insight needed to weigh on world events (21). And on the other hand, are the BRIC (particularly with China and Russia) that proved unable to take the time to complete control or part of the international system and whose only action can thus discreetly undermine what remains of the foundations of the pre-crisis (22).
Eventually, c 'is therefore an impotence which generalizes (23) in the international community, which strengthens not only the risk of major shocks, but also the importance of the consequences of these shocks. The world of 2008 was taken by surprise by the violent shock of the crisis, but the international system was paradoxically better equipped to respond as organized around an undisputed leader (24). In 2011, it is not so: not only is not an undisputed leader, but the system is as bloodless si è detto in precedenza. E la situazione è ancora peggiorata dal fatto che le società di un grande numero di paesi del pianeta sono sul precipizio della caduta socioeconomica.
Società sul precipizio della caduta socioeconomica
E' in particolare il caso di Stati Uniti ed Europa dove tre anni di crisi iniziano a pesare molto nella bilancia socioeconomica, e dunque politica. Le famiglie americane ormai insolventi per decine di milioni oscillano tra povertà subita (25) e collera anti-sistema. I cittadini europei, incastrati tra disoccupazione e smantellamento dello Stato-provvidenza (26), iniziano a rifiutare di pagare le aggiunte delle crisi finanziarie e di bilancio ed intraprendere the search for culprits (banks, euro, political parties, government, ...). But even among the emerging powers, made the transition from violent crises, these companies leads to situations of failure: in China, the need to monitor financial bubbles in progress conflicts with the desire for enrichment of whole sectors of society such as employment with the need to tens of millions of temporary workers in Russia, the weakness of the social network is poorly suited to the enrichment of elites, as well as nell'Algeria shaken by riots. In Turkey, Brazil, India, known everywhere for quick transitions from these countries leads to riots, protests, terrorist attacks. For reasons sometimes paradoxical development for each and impoverishment for others, a bit 'anywhere on our planet would address a number of companies in 2011 in a context of strong tensions, socio-economic failure, becoming political powder kegs. And 'its position at the junction of three roads which makes 2011 a year merciless. And it will be merciless to the States (and local communities) who have chosen not to take the difficult lessons from three years of crisis that followed and / or were satisfied with cosmetic changes that did not change anything in their fundamental imbalances . Will be for companies (and states (27)) who believed that the fill of 2010 was the sign of a return to "normality" of the world economy. And finally it will be for investors who have not understood that the values \u200b\u200bof yesterday (securities, currencies, ....) Could not be those of tomorrow (at least for many years). History is generally a "good daughter." Often gives a warning shot first sweep of the past. This time, he gave warning to the coup in 2008. We believe that in 2011, give the brush stroke. Only the actors who have undertaken, perhaps laboriously, perhaps in part, adaptation to new conditions generated by the crisis will resist, for others, the chaos is the end of the road.
Notes:
(1) Or the world as we know since 1945 to resume our description of 2006.
(2) The recent decision by the U.S. Department of Labor to extend to five years as far as long-term unemployment in the U.S. employment statistics, instead of the maximum of two years until now, is a good indicator of entry into a new stage of the crisis, which saw a step away "habits" of the world before. Moreover, the U.S. government cites the "unprecedented rise" of long duration to justify this decision. Source:
The Hill , 28/12/2010
(3) These measures (monetary, financial, economic, financial, strategic) are now closely connected. Therefore they will be removed in a series of successive shocks.
(4) Source:
The Independent, 13/01/2011
(5) is even worse because it is the international aid that has brought the cholera the island, leaving thousands dead.
(6) Moreover Timothy Geithner, the Minister U.S. Treasury, little known to his imagination, had indicated that "the U.S. government could once again have to do exceptional things," referring to the bailout of banks in 2008. Source: MarketWatch , 13/01/2011
(7) Besides India and Iran are preparing a system of exchange "or cons oil" in an attempt to avoid supply disruptions. Source:
Times of India , 08/01/2011
(8) The FAO food prices just passed in January 2011 (215) the previous record of May 2008 (214).
(9) The Wall Street banks get rid currently very high speed (unmatched since 2004) of their U.S. Treasury Bonds. Their official explanation is "the remarkable improvement of the U.S. economy that no longer justifies taking refuge on Treasury bills." Of course, you are free to believe as does the reporter
Bloomberg of 10/01/2011.
(10) Thus Euroland advance already major step on the path described in GEAB No. 50 with a discount in case of refinancing the debts of a member state, whereas now the Japanese and U.S. debts are about to enter into turmoil. Sources:
Bloomberg, 07/01/2011; Telegraph, 05/01/2011
(11) We believe that in general the balance sheets of large Global banks contain at least 50% of assets whose ghost coming year will require a discount of 20% to 40% due to the return of the global recession with austerity, of rising defaults on loans by households, businesses, communities, states, wars and monetary recovery from the fall of real estate. The "stress-tests" American, European, Chinese, Japanese or others can still continue to try to reassure markets with scenarios "
Bears " except that this year's "Alien Predator cons "which is on the agenda of the banks. Source: Forbes , 12/01/2011
(12) Each these housing markets will still fall sharply in 2011 to those who have already started falling in recent years, or in the case of China, will begin its brutal deflation amid economic slowdown and monetary tightening.
(13) The Japanese economy is also one of the first victims of this war of currencies, with 76% of CEOs of 110 major Japanese companies surveyed by Kyodo News are now reporting for the pessimists Japanese growth in 2011 following the rise of the yen. Source:
JapanTimes , 04/01/2011
(14) Here are some inspiring examples compiled by the excellent John Rubino. Source:
DollarCollapse , 08/01/2011
(15) For recall, in the
GEAB No. 48 , from 15/10/2010, we had ranked Tunisia in "countries with significant risks" for 2011.
(16) No doubt, moreover, that the Tunisian example generates a burst of reassessment among rating agencies and "experts in geopolitics," which, as usual, did not see it coming. The Tunisian case also illustrates the fact that it is now the satellite countries of the West in general and U.S. in particular, who are on the way shocks of 2011 and years to come. And it confirms what we rehearse regularly, a crisis accelerates all historical processes. The Ben Ali regime, old twenty-three years, collapsed in a few weeks. When obsolescence policy is there, everything changes quickly. Now it's all pro-Western Arab regimes, which is now obsolete in the light of events in Tunisia.
(17) No doubt this paralysis "Western sponsors" will be carefully analyzed in Rabat, Cairo, Jeddah and Amman for example.
(18) System which was their most favorable since without counterweight to their influence.
(19) We will return in more detail in this issue of GEAB, but because China is no mistake. Source:
Xinhua , 02/01/2011
(20) Gradually, the Europeans are discovering that they are dependent on other power centers of Washington. Beijing, Moscow, Brasilia, New Delhi, ... come very slowly in the landscape key partners. Source:
La Tribune, 05/01/2011; Liberation , 24/12/2010; El Pais, 05/01/2011
(21) All the energy is concentrated on Japan's desperate attempt to resist the attraction of China. As for other Western countries, they are not able to significantly influence global trends.
(22) The role of the U.S. Dollar in the global system is in these foundations that the BRIC actively eroding day by day.
(23) In terms of deficit, the U.S. case is exemplary. Beyond the speeches, everything continues as before the crisis with a deficit swelling exponentially. Yet even the IMF now pulls the alarm. Source:
Reuters, 08/01/2011
(24) Moreover, even the
Wall Street Journal of 12/01/2011, which is the Echo Forum in Davos, is concerned about the lack of international coordination, which is itself a major risk to the global economy.
(25) Millions of Americans are discovering the food banks for the first time in their lives, while in California, as in many other states, the education system is disintegrating fast. In Illinois, the studies on the deficit of the state now compared to the Titanic. 2010 broke the record foreclosures. Sources:
Alternet, 27/12/2010; CNN, 08/01/2011; IGPA -Illinois, 01/2011; LADailyNews , 13/01/2011
(26) Ireland is facing a mere reconstruction of its economy is a good example for future situations. But even Germany, yet remarkable economic performance currently is no exception to this trend as shown by the crisis of funding for cultural activities. While in the United Kingdom, millions of retirees are seeing their incomes amputees for the third consecutive year. Sources:
Irish Times , 31/12/2010; Deutsche Welle , 03/01/2011; Telegraph , 13/01/2011
(27) In this regard, American officials confirm that they rush straight into the wall of public debts, failing to anticipate problems. Indeed, the recent statement by Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief, in which he stated that the Fed will not help the states (30% decrease in tax revenues in 2009 after
Washington Post of 01/05/2011) and cities are drowning in debt, just as Congress 'decision to stop issuing' Build Bonds American "who avoided the States to go bankrupt in the last two years, illustrent un aveuglement de Washington qui n'a d'équivalent que celui dont Washington a fait preuve en 2007/2008 face à la montée des conséquences de la crise des « subprimes ». Sources : Bloomberg , 07/01/2011 ; WashingtonBlog 13/01/2011
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